Once you have practiced the mathematics for calculating odds and outs, you can use this probability to “value” your hand versus the size of the pot. The theory is the basics for valuing real assets. In the case of poker it is as follows: Hand Value = Pot Size x Probability of that Outcome.

The most tempting call when you are behind is the flush draw. According to the outs required to hit your flush draw, the odds of that outcome are around 25%.

If the pot is $100, an even money call will be roughly 25% of the pot after all other bets are in. In the simplest situation, if you are last to call and your opponent bets $30, the pot after your opponent’s bet is $130. You then ask yourself what percentage of the pot is the amount of the call? In this case it is 23% or 30/130. If the bet/pot ratio is smaller than the odds (%) to make your hand, you are getting value on your drawing hand. If the bet/pot ratio is larger than the odds to make your hand, you are over paying for your hand. Note: This does not take into account implied odds or additional money that is not in play yet, such as the next betting round.

To test the theory, think of this situation repeating itself many times. Note: the more times it is repeated, less variation will occur.

You pay $30 to win $130. 25% of the time you win and 75% of the time you lose.

If this repeated itself 100 times and the probabilities hold true for this trial set. The following should occur:

You will lose 75 times and lose $2250 ($30 x 75)
You will win 25 times and win $3250 ($130 x 25)

You will have a net profit of $1000

In reality the same exact situation with exact amounts and probability will not occur in succession, but over time the principal will remain the same. You want to avoid overpaying for drawing hands. This is especially important in Limit Poker where the pot can only build on a structured basis.

Remember, being a successful poker player does not require you to win every hand or every game, but rather simply maintaining the advantage (mathematical and psychological) as many times as possible so that you win most of the time and lose some of the time.

On the Flip Side:
Knowing this helps to understand the best defense against a drawing hand, which is to bet and bet enough to price out draws. If you consistently make it too costly (mathematically unprofitable) for your opponents to make their draws, you will have a better chance of consistently building your chip stack even if players occasionally hit their draws.

This principle is further examined under the Implied Pot Odds section.