Implied Odds

If you have a handle on Odds and Outs and Pot Odds, Implied odds are relatively simple. Implied odds require judgment in combination with mathematical understanding. Direct odds are what we can see and there for can calculate with certainty. However, implied odds take into account the implication of unknown incalculable events that may occur. This is where your judgment will be necessary.

You will hear of implied odds in many pre-flop situations. This is where it makes sense to call with relatively weak cards with a decent size pot where the entry is cheap relative to the pot size. The fact that you are last to act guarantees your price to enter, meaning you do not risk being re-raised. With the pot odds (I like to use 5:1 or $1 call for every $5 in the pot), allows for a large reward should you hit with an unsuspecting hand like 4,6 off suit with very little risk. The implication being all of the future action that could occur, the implied odds are greater with more participants, because it increase the chance of post flop action should you hit with your hand (hit: meaning 2 pair or greater, depending on the board).

There are cases after the flop where your judgment is further needed to decided if a player will grant you action should you actually hit your hand. In such cases you may be willing “over pay” for a draw hand if you have some certainty the pot you can earn is much greater (the pot plus your opponents remaining chip stack) than what is currently in play. The best way to explain this is to give you a personal poker story.

The game was a balanced game of different types of players. Some of which I had played with before. In this case my main opponent (target) in the hand was someone I had played so I had an even better understanding of their tendencies. They are a mostly tight passive player who knows I am a loose aggressive player. This was enough info to make this situation work. I will leave out actually values, but refer to pot percentages.


Example:
I was dealt: Ad 10d

There was a pre-flop raise 3 times the blind.

I called, 2 other players called.

The flop was 3 8 9, two of which were diamonds.

Checked to me, I priced the pot at 20%. This table was pretty passive; I was looking for direct pot odds on my flush.

Everyone called.

The turn was a 7. I looked at my opponent who was first to act and his eyes lite up like a kid's on Christmas morning. I pegged him on J 10. I knew he had hit his straight and at the very least 2 pair. He bet 75% of the pot.

Using my judgment, I knew I had him committed if I hit my flush. According to direct pot odds the bet was twice more than I should have mathematically called at that point. However, I knew with a great deal of certainty I could get the rest of his stack in should I hit on the river, which was 3 times more than what was currently in the pot. I called.

The river gave me my flush. He was first to act. Confident he chased off any draws, he bet another 50% at the pot. I had to do a little poker acting and eventually went all in. To my delight and not much of a surprise he called.

Seeing what I had called with on the turn, he was perplexed. He said I can’t believe you called that much  with a flush draw, that bet was supposed to get you out." I just shrugged and said "I got lucky."

I had a better chance to lose that hand than I did to win, but I knew with a good degree of certainty his chip stack may as well be in the pot if I hit my flush, so I could use that in my calculation and determined the implied odds were in my favor. NOTE: If he had gone all in on the turn, I couldn’t have called which is a good defensive play against a draw.